![]() The UKMET model was the second-best model in 2019, closely followed by the COAMPS-TC model. Best track model in 2019: the EuropeanĪs usual, in 2019 the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms were tough to beat, though the European Center (ECMWF) model did outperform the official NHC forecast for one-day and two-day forecasts. The average NHC three-day track forecast error for Sebastien was 390 miles – much worse than the typical NHC three-day track error of 118 miles used in the cone of uncertainty. ![]() The NHC track forecasts for Humberto and Lorenzo were particularly excellent, but the overall track forecast errors would have been much better had it not been for one oddball storm that caused major frustrations for forecasters – Tropical Storm Sebastien. The 2019 NHC Atlantic track forecasts tended to have a south to southwest bias of 31 – 95 miles for three- to five-day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the south or southwest of the verifying position). That amounts to an extraordinary accomplishment, one undoubtedly leading to huge savings in lives, damage, and emotional angst. Over the past 30 years, one- to three-day track forecast errors have decreased by 70 – 75% over the past 15 years, four-day and five-day track forecast errors have decreased by 60%. ![]() During the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, NHC track forecasts had accuracies near the five-year average, with five-day track forecasts setting a new record for accuracy.
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